Luck Index Methodology

Laetus does not try to predict lottery outcomes or “beat” probability. Instead, it measures how your personal results deviate from statistical expectation over time using a transparent, deterministic formula. The result is a normalized Luck Index (0–100%) reflecting how recent outcomes compare to random chance.

1. Virtual Bets as Input

Each virtual bet includes selected numbers, official results, lottery structure, and optional virtual winnings. Only valid bets with known results are used.

2. Expected vs Actual Matches

For each bet, Laetus estimates expected matches based on lottery structure:

expectedMatches = numbersChosen / lotteryPoolSize

The difference between expected and actual matches is normalized using statistical variance, producing the Relative Luck Contribution (RLC).

3. Logarithmic Smoothing

• Small deviations are dampened
• Larger deviations are preserved
• Extreme values are clamped

This prevents noise from small wins while preserving meaningful signals.

4. Time-Weighted Luck Signal

luckSignal = α × previousLuck + (1 − α) × currentRLC

Recent bets influence the score more strongly, but historical performance is never fully discarded.

5. Optional Money Signal

If virtual winnings are present, a logarithmic money signal is calculated. It is heavily smoothed to prevent jackpots from dominating the score. Money slightly influences the index but never replaces statistical luck.

6. Final Luck Score

rawLuck = luckSignal + weight × moneySignal
luckPercent = 50 + rawLuck × 10

• 50% → matches random expectation
• >50% → above-average outcomes
• <50% → below-average outcomes

The final score is limited to the range 0–100%.

Transparency & Scope

• ✅ Deterministic and reproducible
• ✅ Based purely on statistical deviation
• ❌ Not a prediction engine
• ❌ Not a gambling advantage
• ❌ Not a promise of future wins

Laetus helps you observe statistical behavior — not chase outcomes.